Unfortunately, judging television markets can’t always be a clear-cut affair. Instead of cancelling a show, for example, a network may merely put it on “hiatus” – and never let it return. Following are guidelines for how Media Predict will judge television markets.

Ratings Markets

Nielsen ratings are widely reported in a variety of outlets. Our primary references will be Variety, MediaLife, TVWeek, Zap2it.com, and the AP.

If there are discrepant reports among these outlets, Media Predict will use Variety as a first point of reference.

Cancellation Markets

Cancellations markets focus on whether a series will make a milestone: e.g. a 5th, 10th, or 15th episode.

Markets will close two episodes before the milestone. So if a market judges whether a show will make it to a tenth episode, trading will close the night of the airing of the eighth episode. Media Predict will close markets according to the appearance of this closing episode. Media Predict will account for re-runs and scheduled interruptions in closing markets, and reserves the right to extend or shorten closing dates accordingly.

Often, networks do not announce cancellation to avoid unfavorable press. In these situations, Media Predict often will have to make an independent judgment of whether a show has been canceled. In cases where a network will not officially acknowledge a seeming cancellation, Media Predict will consider the following criteria in making a judgment:

• Press reports strongly indicate that cancellation has indeed happened. Our first point of reference will be press reports from Variety, MediaLife, TVWeek, Zap2it.com, and the AP.
• A show does not air in its regular time slot or an alternative time slot for over two weeks.
• The network does not set any specific date for a show to return.
• The network gives no explanation for the hiatus or a strong indication that the show will indeed return.

Media Predict will consider a series canceled if it is transferred from one network (e.g. a major network) to a smaller network (e.g. a cable affiliate).

Media Predict acknowledges in advance that in rare instances where we may make the wrong call by using the above criteria. For example, by the above, we might have judged “Six Degrees” to be canceled in the autumn of last year. In actuality ABC resurrected the series for a short run in March, before cancelling it again three weeks later. Except in cases of egregious error, Media Predict cannot reimburse traders retroactively for these exceptional situations.